... First, if the election were held today, overall Biden would lead Trump by ten points, 48 percent to 38 percent. While Biden's support increased daily during the Democratic convention and for two days after, Trump's support fluctuated during the Republican convention, increasing after the first day, dipping after the second, then rising and spiking after Trump's speech. Comparing the results of the first six days with the results of the last five, there was some overall change —from 39 percent for Trump and 48 percent for Biden after the first period, to 37 percent and 50 percent, respectively, after the second period. The most notable change was among independents: from 16 percent to 14 percent for Trump, and from 31 to 39 percent for Biden, between the first and second periods...
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